ANTI-CRISIS FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR UKRAINE’S BANKING SECTOR UNDER MILITARY UNCERTAINTY: FORMATION AND SUBSTANTIATION
Abstract
The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the problems of financial risk management in the banking sector of Ukraine in the conditions of full-scale war and geopolitical instability. The study employs a combination of systemic and comparative analysis to assess the transformation of financial risk profiles in the Ukrainian banking sector under wartime conditions, alongside content analysis of regulatory documents, analytical reports, and scientific publications. In addition, elements of case analysis and qualitative synthesis are used to justify the application of asset management companies (AMC) and advanced analytics, including artificial intelligence, as integrated components of anti-crisis risk management strategies. A thorough analysis of the current state of the domestic banking system has been carried out, identifying key transformations in the risk profile, particularly the critical accumulation of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the public sector and the growth of operational cyber threats. The study emphasizes that while the overall NPL share demonstrates a downward trend, state-owned banks remain significantly burdened with a toxic portfolio. Furthermore, based on recent regulatory surveys, the research highlights that alongside military risks, institutional weaknesses such as corruption and judicial instability have emerged as critical threats to financial stability. Based on the analysis of the activities of systemically important banks, the necessity of transitioning from traditional risk management models to adaptive anti-crisis strategies is substantiated, as conventional retrospective scoring has lost its predictive power due to the volatility of the war economy. A comprehensive approach to the recovery of the financial sector is proposed, based on two complementary mechanisms: the institutional separation of non-performing assets through the creation of specialized Asset Management Companies (AMCs) with a clear categorization of war-damaged assets versus economic defaults, and the technological modernization of risk assessment systems through the implementation of artificial intelligence tools and Advanced Analytics.
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