STRATEGIC TASKS OF POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION THROUGH THE PRISM OF ASSESSING UKRAINE'S LOST OPPORTUNITIES
Abstract
The article reveals approaches to determining the "lost opportunities" of the economy – a problem faced by both developed and developing countries. For this purpose, the article uses traditional macroeconomic indicators, the size and dynamics of GDP and/or the size and dynamics of GDP per capita. The analysis of GDP per capita in different countries with a periodicity of 30 years made it possible to single out periods of breakthrough economic growth and periods of stagnation, and also made it possible to draw a conclusion about the importance of evaluating the factors that ensure these trends. The key thesis concerned the backwardness of the group of developing countries, which means the need to change strategies and the content of reforms. Ukraine's development trajectory was compared with such post-socialist countries as Poland and Romania, whose level of development was comparable in terms of GDP per capita in 1990. Based on the main analysis of the real economic growth rates of Ukraine and Poland, the scale of the "lost" third of the century in development was determined. It was noted that Ukraine, which faced a war, needs an objective assessment of the mistakes made in previous years. The experience of countries, in particular Japan, Brazil, and Argentina, which had periods of development called the "lost" decade, is summarized. The main reasons for existing differences in the dynamics of economic development of different countries are identified, including the technological revolution, the level of economic development of the country, investments in fixed capital, the effectiveness of government policy, and the productivity of the economy. In Ukraine, in addition to the mentioned factors, the unreformed structure of the economy, dependence on cheap energy sources, the scale of the shadow sector and the persistence of corruption also had an impact. It was noted that the key problem of the post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy will be the need to simultaneously solve both operational tasks and strategic tasks of ensuring long-term sustainable development. A set of reforms is proposed, the implementation of which will ensure the creation of conditions for breakthrough economic growth.
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