FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE ENTERPRISE
Abstract
The publication highlights the results of the conducted research aimed at developing a scientific and methodological approach to forecasting changes in the financial and economic state of the enterprise. The existing scientific and methodological approaches to solving problems of assessment, analysis and forecasting of changes in the financial and economic state of the enterprise and its bankruptcy are analyzed. The need for systematic monitoring of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the financial and economic activity of the enterprise in order to make effective management decisions aimed at solving current and prospective management problems is substantiated. The analysis of indicators of financial reporting of economically active enterprises, as well as the use of methods of logical and econometric analysis, made it possible to propose a possible approach to solving the problem of assessing the nature of relationships in an array of indicators that characterize various aspects of the financial and economic activity of an enterprise. On the basis of the formed arrays of indicators, the value of the relevant sub-indices was calculated, which characterize, respectively, the potential of investment provision, liquidity and market stability, the potential of financial stability, business activity, profitability and efficiency of the use of fixed capital. Based on the information of the annual financial statements of economically active enterprises, the value of the corresponding sub-indices and the integral indicator of the financial and economic condition were calculated. The proposed rule of classification with the use of specialized software made it possible to build a discriminant model of forecasting the financial and economic condition and determine the limit of discrimination. The proposed approach, based on the results of which a model and an interpretation scale were developed, made it possible to draw a conclusion about exactly what changes in the financial and economic condition of the studied enterprises will be expected in 2024, as well as the probability of such changes. Further development of this approach will make it possible to predict changes in the financial and economic status of enterprises with a high probability, the information of the financial statements of which became the basis for the development of the appropriate discriminant model.
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