THE FORECAST OF CORRUPTION IMPACT ON STATE'S ECONOMIC SECURITY
Abstract
The article assesses and forecasts the impact of corruption on the state's economic security. By using theoretical and historical analysis the paper substantiates the relevance of studying the corruption influence on the state's economic security in war conditions and establishes the importance of such activity in the conditions of Ukraine's European integration aspirations. The article reveals the main reasons for the high level of corruption and the corruption of the highest-level officials. Moreover, the article offers a methodology for assessing the impact of corruption on the economic security of the state and forecasting the level of this impact. The methodology consists in calculating the values of several indicators that reflect the impact of corruption on public activity and the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures and forecasting the value of these indicators for the future period to establish the level of influence of corruption on the economic security of the state. Because of using the methodology, the paper calculates the index of perception of corruption in Ukraine in dynamics and contains a forecast of its value for the period of 2023-2027. Therefore, the study determined the level of the shadow economy in Ukraine and the forecast for the period of 2023-2027. Moreover, the article calculated the index of ease of doing business in Ukraine, and its forecast for the next 5-year period. The final stage of the analysis was the establishment of the dynamics of the index of economic freedom for business representatives in Ukraine, in addition to the feasibility of forecasting this index for the period 2023-2027. The results of empirical calculations made it possible to establish the level of influence of corruption manifestations on the state's economic security during the war. Accordingly, forecasting the values of these indicators makes it possible to assess post-war trends and their impact on the state's economic security in order to counter potential threats and eliminate them in a timely manner.
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