FORECASTING OF POTENTIAL BUDGET POSSIBILITIES FOR TAX REVENUE MOBILIZATION

Abstract

The components of the tax potential of Ukraine: realized, unrealized, predicted are considered in the article. The dynamics and structure of its realized component in the form of actual tax revenues of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine is determined. It is concluded that tax revenues occupy a dominant share among budget revenues. Tax losses of budgets of all levels due to the existence of the shadow economy sector are calculated. It has been established that the shadow economy significantly reduces the tax potential of the state, violates some of the basic principles of taxation (social justice and the universality of taxation) and is a means of tax evasion. Estimation of tax losses of state budget resources through granting of tax privileges and increase of tax debt is provided. Potential possibilities of the tax system of Ukraine concerning the mobilization of tax revenues to budgets of all levels with regard to realized and unrealized components of tax potential are forecasted. The forecast of the realized component is realized in three types of growth curves: exponential, polynomial and linear based on the indicators of tax revenues to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine for 2007-2017. The forecast of the unrealized component of the tax potential is realized based on our calculated tax losses of budgets of all levels in 2010-2017. The ways of minimization of tax losses of budgets of all levels and elimination of imbalances between planned and actual indicators of the tax component of the state budget resources are determined. The direction of further research of this problem has been determined to improve the mechanism of implementation of the tax potential of Ukraine, using all its components, as one of the most important elements of the budget capabilities of the state.