GLOBAL TRADE AND UKRAINE’S EXTERNAL ECONOMIC SECTOR: INDICATOR-BASED ASSESSMENT OF RESILIENCE
Abstract
The article is dedicated to the analysis of key trends in the development of global trade and the investigation of indicators of foreign trade resilience of the Ukrainian economy amid full-scale military aggression. The primary goal of the research is defined as a comprehensive analysis of the current state of international trade, the assessment of its sustainability level, and the identification of strategic directions for its future development. At the initial stage of the study, an analysis of the main trends in global trade in goods and services was conducted, outlining its vectors of development. It has been established that global shocks (including the pandemic, russia’s military aggression, rising US-China tensions, and inflation) have caused significant changes in the structure of world trade, strengthening the role of middle-sized economies and increasing market volatility. A characteristic feature of this period is the accelerated growth of trade in services, which has begun to outpace trade in goods, alongside the increasing strategic role of middle-sized states as dynamic players in the global market. These factors collectively contribute to heightened volatility and operational uncertainty in the international commercial landscape. An assessment of the resilience of Ukraine's foreign trade was carried out, revealing that Ukraine ranked 67th in the Global Trade Resilience Index for 2023. This indicates a relatively high flexibility of trade networks and logistical adaptability in establishing new sales markets. It has been proven that, during the 2021–2024 period, a significant shift occurred in the commodity structure of exports. The export base has become less diversified and is now more concentrated on agricultural products. This structural change has resulted in increased export concentration by commodity groups, which is recognized as a typical, yet vulnerable, response mechanism to severe crisis conditions. A substantial increase in the negative balance of foreign trade in goods was also detected, which surpassed the pre-war level by six times. Based on the findings, key strategic directions for ensuring long-term stability and economic growth of Ukraine's foreign trade sector have been identified.
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