DYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN EUROPE: MANIFESTATIONS OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL FACTORS
Abstract
The article provides a comprehensive systematic analysis of the dynamics and structural changes in international tourist arrivals to the European macro-region during the 2019–2026 period. The study focuses on the intersection of global shifts and specific regional factors that redefine the modern tourism landscape. Methodology. The research employs statistical comparativism to assess market recovery, index analysis to contrast pre-pandemic and current data, and the scenario method for forecasting until 2030. The empirical basis includes data from UN Tourism, the European Travel Commission, and predictive analytics from digital platforms such as AirDNA and Booking.com.Results. It is proven that the European tourism market has reached a phase of "structural adaptability," achieving 94–98% of 2019 levels. The study identifies and substantiates the phenomenon of "two-speed recovery," where EU candidate countries (e.g., Albania +56%, Montenegro +15%) show leading growth dynamics due to aggressive low-cost carrier expansion and high price elasticity. A significant "security shift" in Eastern Europe has been identified, causing a 16-24% decline in arrivals to the Baltic States and Poland in favor of the Western and Southern peripheries. Furthermore, the emergence of the "Coolcation" climate trend is substantiated, showing a shift in summer demand toward Northern Europe (+11.5%) due to extreme heatwaves in the Mediterranean. Scientific Novelty. The study substantiates a new model of "booking window" transformation, which has compressed from 45 to 18 days under the influence of AI algorithms and the platform economy. Special attention is paid to modeling Ukraine's post-conflict tourism regeneration. Conclusions. Recommendations for the implementation of the "Albanian model" of low-cost expansion in Ukraine are formulated, along with a forecast of reaching 10-12 million international arrivals within five years after the stabilization of the security situation.
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