ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MACROECONOMIC INTERRELATIONS: A SIMULTANEOUS APPROACH TO GDP, CONSUMER SPENDING, AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION ANALYSIS
Abstract
The article is dedicated to the development and testing of a simultaneous econometric model describing the interrelations between key macroeconomic indicators: gross domestic product, final consumption expenditure, and gross capital formation. For parameter estimation, the two-stage least squares method was applied. The empirical base includes data from 2000 to 2021. The structural form of the model consists of three equations: consumption function, investment function, and GDP formation function. Average monthly wages and gross savings were utilized as exogenous variables. Results demonstrate a high level of explanation for endogenous variable variation: the coefficient of determination for the consumption equation is 0.996, investment equation – 0.937, GDP equation – 0.996. The F-test confirmed the adequacy of all three model equations. The system of econometric equations reveals stable structural interdependencies between key macroeconomic indicators, where final consumption expenditure acts as the primary driver of GDP formation.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Лариса Зомчак, Мар’яна Вдовин, Тарас Панчишин
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