BEHAVIORAL AND ANALYTICAL ASPECTS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

The article examines the behavioral and analytical aspects of managerial decision-making in a dynamic and uncertain environment marked by rapid change, complexity, and incomplete information. It argues that traditional rational models, based on assumptions of full information and objectivity, are insufficient under modern conditions of volatility and risk. Risk is interpreted as a measurable manifestation of uncertainty, while uncertainty represents broader, non-quantifiable situations. Effective management therefore requires balancing analytical reasoning with behavioral awareness to enhance adaptability and resilience. The study emphasizes that bounded rationality and cognitive biases-such as confirmation bias, overconfidence, anchoring, and loss aversion-significantly influence managerial judgments. Drawing on behavioral economics and cognitive psychology, it shows that managers often rely on heuristics, which simplify decision-making but may distort the evaluation of alternatives. Consequently, improving decision quality depends on recognizing and mitigating these biases through collective analysis, reflection, and feedback. The analytical component of decision-making is explored through a comparative analysis of key quantitative and qualitative tools: sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, Monte Carlo simulation, and fuzzy logic. The integration of these methods within modern Decision Support Systems (DSS) allows managers to combine data-driven modeling with behavioral insights, supporting more balanced and informed decisions. Attention is also paid to the organizational and cultural dimensions of decision-making. A mature risk culture-based on trust, transparency, and learning-encourages initiative and tolerance for justified errors, while rigid control suppresses creativity. Leadership style and communication openness determine whether uncertainty becomes a source of innovation or a cause of stagnation. The article concludes with an integrated behavioral-analytical model that unites rational analysis, intuition, and organizational learning in a single adaptive cycle. The author argues that the future of effective management lies in the combination of analytical competence and behavioral intelligence, which transforms uncertainty into an opportunity for strategic growth and sustainable development.