MIGRATION DURING MARTIAL LAW: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES. ECONOMIC ASPECT

Abstract

The article analyses how wartime mobility in Ukraine affects labour markets, household incomes, housing, and social protection, and maps policy levers that can mitigate losses and enable recovery. By February 2025, about 4.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) were registered; roughly 70% moved across oblast borders and about two-thirds remained displaced for over two years, signalling protracted displacement. Displaced households face job losses, depleted savings, and rising housing and utility costs, often resorting to lower-quality rentals and informal contracts with eviction risks. Labour market conditions deteriorated sharply in 2022 (unemployment >25%) but improved to ≈11.5% by early 2025, while mobilisation and large internal/external movements tightened labour supply, accelerated wage growth, increased female participation, and exposed skill mismatches. Housing damage is extensive (≈2 million dwellings affected), with high rent burdens among IDP tenants. Return flows are sizeable: an estimated ≈4.1 million people have returned, including many to frontline communities with constrained access to services. External displacement remains large, with millions protected abroad; return intentions hinge on security, housing, and income prospects. Poor working conditions, including long hours, safety gaps, and weak labour protections, further deter return and formal employment. The study draws on and consolidates official statistics with recent humanitarian and economic monitoring, combining IDP registry data and survey-based measures of displacement, mobility, and return. Descriptive indicators track durations, interregional movements, and return rates; comparative regional reading links displacement pressure to labour and housing outcomes. Policy priorities include scaling active labour market measures with targeted upskilling and digital access (including for those abroad), expanding childcare to raise female employment, strengthening tenant protection and simple rental contracts, and deploying rental subsidies, social housing, and calibrated mortgage tools for priority groups. Coordinating employment and housing policies with reconstruction plans can lower displacement costs, support jobs and incomes, facilitate safe voluntary returns, and stabilise local economies in both host and origin regions.