UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY TRANSFORMATION: THE ROLE AND RISKS OF CBDC

Abstract

This article examines the impact of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on macro-financial stability, payment infrastructure, and monetary policy in Ukraine amid global transformations. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of regulatory and legal changes initiated in 2024–2025, including the update of legislation on virtual assets, which aligns with the European integration path and adaptation to MiCA standards. A review of scientific and regulatory sources demonstrates the growing attention to the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) both in global practice and in the context of Ukraine. The aim of the article is to analyze the key risks and opportunities of implementing a CBDC in Ukraine within the framework of the IMF’s 5P methodology, with a special focus on the national specificities of each phase of the digital hryvnia’s implementation.The theoretical framework of the study is based on international approaches to the phased implementation of CBDC, especially the 5P model (Preparation, Proof of Concept, Piloting, Progression, Production), within which key risks for Ukraine are identified at each stage of implementation. A comparative analysis of international experience (China, EU, Nigeria, USA) in CBDC development is provided, outlining potential benefits for the Ukrainian economy, such as reduced transaction costs, enhanced financial inclusion, combating the shadow economy, and increased efficiency of fiscal policy. Of particular importance is the identification of risks inherent at each stage of the 5P model, which enables the adaptation of international recommendations to Ukraine’s institutional realities. The application of this step-by-step analytical logic allows for the development of a balanced strategy for transitioning to a digital form of national currency, taking into account the technical, social, and legal specificities of the national context. As a result, the article formulates practical recommendations for the phased rollout of the e-hryvnia, including technical, regulatory, and behavioral considerations. It has been demonstrated that the introduction of the e-hryvnia in Ukraine could create strong incentives for the digitalization of the economy, reduce transaction costs, and enhance financial inclusion.