ANALYSIS AND DIRECTIONS FOR STABILIZING LIQUIDITY INDICATORS OF A COMMERCIAL BANK

Abstract

The article explores modern approaches to liquidity management in commercial banks under conditions of economic instability and escalating geopolitical risks. A comprehensive analysis of PrivatBank’s liquidity dynamics from 2018 to 2023 is conducted, with detailed projections for 2024–2025. The study emphasizes advanced predictive modeling techniques applied to key liquidity indicators, particularly the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) and the Liquidity Coverage Ratio for Foreign Currency (LCRIB). Results indicate a stabilization trend up to 2023, followed by a projected decline in NSFR to 165.48% in 2024 and 123.05% in 2025, alongside significant reductions in LCRIB. These dynamics are scientifically correlated with systemic risks arising from geopolitical tensions, including a hypothetical escalation involving tactical nuclear weapons. Such scenarios exacerbate macroeconomic instability, disrupt financial operations, and critically challenge the resilience of even the largest institutions. The research introduces innovative frameworks to mitigate these challenges by optimizing liquidity levels, enhancing currency control mechanisms, and integrating automated risk management systems. Particular attention is given to aligning liquidity management strategies with international standards while adapting to evolving global economic conditions. The proposed adoption of digital tools and predictive analytics is highlighted as a transformative approach to strengthening institutional resilience against external shocks and ensuring operational continuity under extreme scenarios. Key findings underscore the intricate interdependence between geopolitical risks and liquidity stability in the banking sector, offering actionable insights for adapting regulatory frameworks and refining risk assessment methodologies. Practical recommendations include implementing robust stress-testing mechanisms and proactive strategies to mitigate extreme external threats, thereby reinforcing the sustainable functioning of Ukraine’s banking system. The research emphasizes the critical role of preemptive regulatory adaptations to enhance the global competitiveness of domestic financial institutions. This study makes a significant contribution to the global discourse on strategic liquidity management, offering a robust theoretical and practical foundation for addressing contemporary challenges. By integrating advanced forecasting models and prioritizing the impact of geopolitical risks, the research underscores its novelty and relevance. The findings position this framework as a transformative tool for modernizing liquidity management practices, ensuring adaptability, competitiveness, and long-term stability in an era of unprecedented economic turbulence.