IMPROVEMENT OF METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF RISK MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The problem of improving the methodological aspects of risk management is a general problem of organizing the risk management methodology of any enterprises and organizations. It is known that the components of any methodology are the correct, logical choice of the composition and sequence of application of the methodices. Unfortunately, many risk management methodices have disadvantages. Therefore, eliminating the disadvantages of risk management methodices becomes an urgent problem. For its successful solution, it is necessary, first of all, to conduct an analysis of the state of methodological support of risk management of enterprises and organizations. The assessment of the established disadvantages led the authors to the conclusion that the most real, promising and an actual component of the general problem of improving the methodological aspects of risk management is the improvement of the methodics of guaranteed certainty (MGC). It was the solution of this component of the general problem that became the purpose of this research. Results: advantages and disadvantages of the current state of the MGC are identified (among the advantages it is possible to include ensuring the transition of the activities of enterprises and organizations to the conditions of more likely certainty of results; disadvantages are: a decrease in the amount of value on which an enterprise or organization can count on its activity; lack of ensuring 100% certainty, which means the absence of one hundred percent guarantee of prevention of catastrophic losses); the attention on the main shortcoming of the current state of the MGC is focused (it is clearly argued that the MGC does not provide one hundred percent certainty, which means one hundred percent guarantee against catastrophic losses); the remedy for the main disadvantage of the MGC is proposed (instead of using the “sigma” risk indicator, which does not guarantee 100% certainty of the company's income, use the “delta” indicator, which provides a 100% guarantee against the existence of catastrophic management losses in conditions of risks); an assessment of the consequences of improving the MGC is provided (the improved MGC provides a one hundred percent guarantee of preventing catastrophic losses of enterprises and organizations in conditions of risks). Scientific novelty: for the first time, an improved version of the MGC methodics was developed, which not only significantly reduces the probability of catastrophic management losses in risk conditions, but also completely eliminates such losses. Practical significance: the use in practice of the improved MGC will contribute to a one hundred percent guarantee of increasing the effectiveness of risk management.