POPULATION WELFARE LEVEL FORECASTING OF UKRAINE: HOLT METHOD
Abstract
The article is devoted to the problems of evaluation and forecasting of population well-being in Ukraine. The concept of population welfare as a multifaceted category is considered in the research. The indicators of economic growth are considered in detail, in particular, the gross domestic product per capita is visualized in dynamics and the predicted values of this indicator are illustrated in the article. An analysis of the dynamics of full-time employees wages in 2010–2022 was carried out, as well as a forecast of this indicator until 2026. The methods of forecasting economic indicators, in particular extrapolation methods, the method of analytical equalization are suggested and compared in the research. The quality of forecasts was evaluated using MAE, RMSE, RMSPE, MAPE indicators. In addition, the economic justification of the forecasting results is considered. Besides, the need for a professional and timely response of state institutions and the creation of favorable conditions for improving the level of indicators that are indicators of the well-being of the population was emphasized. The concept of population well-being is delineated, which is quite abstract, therefore, a large number of terms that describe it to one degree or another are indicated. So, it is stated that the terminological base includes concepts such as "standard of living", "quality of life", "level of well-being", "material situation", etc. The use of different terminology and different interpretations of the concept of population well-being is caused mainly by the fact that its understanding directly depends on the worldview, the level of development of society and the economy. However, it is obvious that such basic indicators as GDP per capita and wages of full-time workers are invariable components of all mentioned categories and concepts. Conclusions are made about the results of the research, in particular about the potential values of indicators of economic growth and wages. Thus, it is represented that forecasting GDP and salary indicators is a necessary stage for developing a further strategy for improving the well-being of the world's population.
References
Завгородня С. Добробут як наукова категорія та пріоритети державної політики щодо збереження та зростання добробуту в умовах повоєнного відновлення України. Науковий вісник: Державне управління. 2023. № 2 (14). С. 181–201. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33269/2618-0065-2023-2(14)-181-201
Tov W. Well-being concepts and components. Handbook of subjective well-being. Salt Lake City, UT: Noba Scholar, 2018. Р. 1–15.
Waddock S. Wellbeing economics narratives for a sustainable future. Humanistic Management Journal. 2021. №6(2). Р. 151–167.
Sendhil Mullainathan. Algorithmic fairness and the social welfare function. In Proceedings of the 2018 ACM Conference on Economics and Computation, pages 1-1. ACM, 2018.
Палига Є.М., Панчишин Т.В. Рівень добробуту населення України у статистичному вимірі. Наукові записки. 2007. № 2(12). С. 95–100.
Зомчак Л., Коваль Л. Сталий розвиток регіонів України: просторово-панельний підхід. Інфраструктура ринку. 2022. Вип. 65. С. 211–215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32843/infrastruct65-35
Вдовин М.Л., Зомчак Л.М., Міщук Т.В. Аналітика сучасного стану добробуту населення України. Економіка та суспільство. 2022. Вип. 39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-39-77
Приймак В.І., Голубник О.Р., Борщук Є.М. Вплив тіньової економіки на добробут населення України. Економіка та держава. 2017. № 9. С. 4–7.
Сімахова А.О. Аналіз впливу зовнішньоекономічних чинників на добробут населення України в умовах світових інтеграційних процесів. Маркетинг і менеджмент інновацій. 2016. № 3. С. 263–271.
Кифяк В.І., Бабчук А.М., Рудько К.І. Інфляція як визначальний фактор впливу на добробут населення України. Економіка та держава. 2018. № 1. С. 86–90.
Frijters P., Clark A.E., Krekel C., Layard R. A happy choice: wellbeing as the goal of government. Behavioural public policy. 2020. 4(2):126–165. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2019.39
Iramani, R & Lutfi, L. An integrated model of financial well-being: The role of financial behavior. Accounting. 2021. 7(3), 691–700.
Панчишин Т., Вдовин М. Компоненти сталого розвитку територіальних громад та регіонів в умовах суспільно-політичних викликів. Економіка та суспільство. 2023. Вип. 50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-50-23
Шіковець К.О., Квіта Г.М., Єрьоменко Я.М. Системно-ситуаційне моделювання цілей сталого розвитку. Інфраструктура ринку. 2021. Вип. 62. С. 102–107.
Заєць С. Статистичне прогнозування показників рівня життя населення в контексті сталого розвитку. Європейський науковий журнал економічних та фінансових інновацій. 2020. № 2(6). С. 132–145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32750/2020-0212
Silvija Vlah Jerić, Davor Zoričić, Denis Dolinar. Analysis of forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for the Croatian economy. Economic Research – Ekonomska Istraživanja. 2020. Vol. 33, No 1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1632727
Офіційний сайт Державної служби статистики України. URL: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
Zavhorodnia S. (2023). Dobrobut yak naukova katehoriia ta priorytety derzhavnoi polityky shchodo zberezhennia ta zrostannia dobrobutu v umovakh povoiennoho vidnovlennia Ukrainy [Welfare as a scientific category and state policy priorities regarding the preservation and growth of welfare in the conditions of post-war reconstruction of Ukraine]. Naukovyi visnyk: Derzhavne upravlinnia, 2 (14), 181–201.
Tov W. (2018). Well-being concepts and components. Handbook of subjective well-being (pp. 1-15). Salt Lake City, UT: Noba Scholar.
Waddock, S. (2021). Wellbeing economics narratives for a sustainable future. Humanistic Management Journal, 6(2), 151–167.
Mullainathan S (2018). Algorithmic fairness and the social welfare function. In Proceedings of the 2018 ACM Conference on Economics and Computation, pages 1-1. ACM.
Palyha Ye.M., Panchyshyn T.V. (2007). Riven dobrobutu naselennia Ukrainy u statystychnomu vymiri [The level of well-being of the population of Ukraine in statistical terms]. Naukovi zapysky, 2(12), 95–100.
Zomchak L., Koval L. (2022). Stalyi rozvytok rehioniv Ukrainy: prostorovo-panelnyi pidkhid [Sustainable development of Ukrainian regions: spatial panel method]. Infrastruktura rynku, 65, 211–215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32843/infrastruct65-35
Vdovyn, M., Zomchak, L., & Mishchuk, T. (2021). Analityka suchasnoho stanu dobrobutu naselennya Ukrayiny [Analysis of the current state of well-being of the population of Ukraine]. Economy and Society, 39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-39-77
Pryymak V.I., Holubnyk O.R., Borshchuk,YE.M. (2017). Vplyv tinʹovoyi ekonomiky na dobrobut naselennya Ukrayiny [The influence of the shadow economy on the well-being of the population of Ukraine]. Ekonomika ta derzhava, 9, 4–7.
Simakhova A.O. (2016) Analiz vplyvu zovnishnoekonomichnykh chynnykiv na dobrobut naselennia Ukrainy v umovakh svitovykh intehratsiinykh protsesiv [Analysis of the influence of foreign economic factors on the well-being of the population of Ukraine in the conditions of global integration processes]. Marketynh i menedzhment innovatsii (electronic journal), 3, 263–271.
Kyfiak, V., Babchuk, A. and Rudko, K. (2018). Infliatsiia yak vyznachalnyi faktor vplyvu na dobrobut naselennia Ukrainy [Inflation as the main determinant of the impact on the welfare of the ukrainian population]. Ekonomika ta derzhava, 1, 86–90.
Frijters P., Clark A.E., Krekel C., Layard R. (2020). A happy choice: wellbeing as the goal of government. Behavioural public policy, 4(2):126-165. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2019.39
Iramani, R & Lutfi, L. (2021). An integrated model of financial well-being: The role of financial behavior. Accounting, 7(3), 691–700.
Panchyshyn T., Vdovyn M. (2023) Komponenty staloho rozvytku terytorialnykh hromad ta rehioniv v umovakh suspilno-politychnykh vyklykiv [Sustainable development components of territorial communities and regions in terms of socio-political challenges]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-50-23
Shikovets K.O., Kvita H.M., Yeromenko Ya.M. (2021) Systemno-sytuatsiine modeliuvannia tsilei staloho rozvytku [System-situational modeling objectives of sustainable development]. Infrastruktura rynku, 62, 102–107.
Zaiets, S. (2020). Statystychne prohnozuvannia pokaznykiv rivnia zhyttia naselennia v konteksti staloho rozvytku [Statistical forecasting of standard of living in the context of sustainable development]. Yevropeiskyi naukovyi zhurnal ekonomichnykh ta finansovykh innovatsii, 2(6), 132–145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32750/2020-0212
Silvija Vlah Jerić, Davor Zoričić, Denis Dolinar (2020). Analysis of forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for the Croatian economy. Economic Research – Ekonomska Istraživanja, 33, 1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1632727
Official website. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Available at: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
Copyright (c) 2024 Мар’яна Вдовин, Христина Сухович
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
