A NECESSITY OF ECONOMIC SECURITY FORECAST AS AN ANTI-CRISIS INSTRUMENT IN A PUBLIC GOVERNANCE

Abstract

A necessity of economic security forecast as an anti-crisis instrument in a public governance is devoted in the article. The problem of forming an effective system of economic security indicators is related to the necessity of improving the regions’ economic condition. The level of the region economic security depends on threats and risks of the internal and external environment, which present the greatest threat to the strategic development of the region in a changing market environment. The effective system of the region economic security combines two components – ensuring the effectiveness of a complex measures to achieve it and the ability to respond in a timely manner to identify threats from the external and internal environment. Therefore, the most important role is given to forecasting socio-economic indicators of the region economic security, which allow carrying out quantitative and qualitative risk assessment quickly, ensure functional sustainability, and respond to changes. Issues of ensuring the region economic security in the chaotic emergence of internal and external threats determine the possibility of achieving sustainable development. To reduce the impact of threats and eliminate them, each region must create its own, individual mechanism-indicator of the state of economic security, able to monitor the threat at the current level. However, the complex of threats depends on region specific qualities, use different methods of analysis, forecasting and ranking of threats in order to identify and prevent the most dangerous at this stage. The issue of forecasting the state of economic security is a very important aspect in building anti-crisis measures in public governance, and this requires both practical and theoretical research in this area. Not all indicators can be used for assessment of the state region economic security, but only those that most closely meet the specifics of the region, the objectives of crisis management, and best reflect the results of socio-economic development and, ideally, do not contradict each other. A necessity of improving the forecast system of a region socio-economic situation is the important task for increasing efficiency of a public governance.