COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE HOSPITALITY AND TOURISM INDUSTRY

Abstract

The article develops a comprehensive methodological approach to assessing risks in the tourism and hospitality sector of Ukraine functioning under the unprecedented conditions of martial law and a state of "permacrisis". The author developed an integrated Risk Index for Tourism and Hospitality (IRTG), which serves as a multi-dimensional analytical tool for evaluating sectoral stability. This index is constructed through the synthesis of five fundamental thematic blocks: geopolitical and security threats, economic activity levels, infrastructure and energy stability, the deficit of human capital, and institutional-managerial resilience. The methodological framework employs the min-max normalization method and expert weighting to ensure the mathematical accuracy of the integrated indicators. According to the results of the calculations, a strategic differentiation of Ukrainian regions was performed, identifying three distinct zones: "strategic resilience" (IRTG < 0.30), "adaptive functioning" (0,30–0,50), and "critical recovery" (IRTG > 0.60). The study proves that while the security factor remains the primary determinant of the risk landscape, the acute shortage of qualified personnel is transforming into a systemic threat that limits the recovery potential across all regions. Furthermore, the analysis integrates fiscal indicators, specifically tourism tax revenues, as a proxy for measuring real economic dynamics. The practical significance of the findings lies in providing a robust evidence base for strategic decision-making by both state authorities and private stakeholders. For businesses, the IRTG index acts as a guide for investment prioritization and relocation strategies, while for the state, it offers a scientific foundation for designing differentiated support mechanisms and tax preferences for the most vulnerable territories. The research emphasizes that the future of the industry depends on the ability to balance economic efficiency with innovative adaptation, such as the implementation of "energy islands" and the development of specialized "psychological recovery" services.