INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON BUSINESS: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Abstract

The article examines the influence of macroeconomic factors on the development of business in Ukraine based on econometric analysis, which is especially relevant in the conditions of economic instability, war risks and transformational processes in the national economy. The topicality of the topic is due to the need to understand the regularities of the functioning of the business environment under the influence of inflation, unemployment, currency fluctuations and GDP dynamics, which allows to improve the quality of management and strategic decisions. The purpose of the study is to analyze, systematize and quantify the impact of the main macroeconomic factors on business activity. To achieve the goal, general scientific and special research methods were used, in particular, a systematic approach, economic and statistical analysis, methods of correlation and regression analysis. As a result of the study, macroeconomic factors affecting the development of enterprises were systematized, and a multifactor regression model of the dependence of the number of enterprises on key macroeconomic indicators was built. The conducted correlation analysis made it possible to determine the degree of interrelationships between the variables. Based on the assessment of regression and elasticity coefficients, the nature and degree of influence of the studied factors were quantified. It was established that the level of unemployment has a more significant negative impact on the number of enterprises, because its increase leads to a reduction in economic activity, a decrease in solvent demand and a weakening of entrepreneurial initiative. Inflation also has a negative impact, as it causes an increase in production costs, a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, and a deterioration in the financial condition of enterprises. At the same time, the increase in GDP has a positive, albeit less pronounced, effect on the number of enterprises, which indicates the importance of economic growth for supporting entrepreneurial activity. Checking the adequacy of the model confirmed its statistical significance and suitability for analysis. The practical value of the work lies in the possibility of using the obtained results for the assessment of macroeconomic risks, forecasting trends in the development of the business environment and the formation of an effective state policy to support business in conditions of economic instability, as well as for strategic planning of enterprise activities.