FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE USING STRATEGIC MARKETING METHODS OF TAXONOMIC AND SCENARIO ANALYSES
Abstract
The scientific article is devoted to the study of the application of marketing instruments of strategic planning for assessing the development prospects of Ukraine’s dairy industry through the implementation of taxonomic analysis and scenario modelling methodologies. On the one hand, the research employs a comprehensive methodological approach to evaluating the state and development dynamics of the dairy industry in Ukraine, in particular the method of taxonomic analysis, which enabled the author to calculate an integrated efficiency coefficient – the taxonomic indicator – on the basis of aggregated indicators characterizing the functioning of the dairy sector. The application of strategic planning methods demonstrated the instability of the taxonomic indicator during 2003–2022, which, according to the author, was caused by the following main factors: military actions in Ukraine initiated by Russian aggression, which led to the reduction of dairy and dairy processing enterprises due to their damage and destruction; a sharp increase in dairy product prices; slow development of the processing sector; incomplete implementation of state programs supporting the functioning and development of Ukraine’s dairy industry; non-compliance of certain dairy products with EU technical standards, among others. On the other hand, using scenario modelling based on forecasted values of the taxonomic coefficient under three strategic scenarios, conclusions and recommendations were drawn. The optimistic scenario reflects significant potential for recovery and development of the sector under aggressive growth strategies. Recommended measures include expanded state support (subsidies, preferential credit), technological modernization, support for small and medium enterprises, and expansion into export markets. The inertial scenario indicates slow, gradual progress in the absence of structural reforms. A stabilization strategy is advisable – focusing on cost control, preservation of existing capacities, and risk minimization through supply chain management. The pessimistic scenario demonstrates a decline in sectoral performance due to wartime destruction, insufficient policy support, and market losses. A survival strategy is necessary – entailing cost reduction, consolidation, and a strategic pivot toward high-value markets.
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