PROSPECTS OF ENSURING BUDGETARY SECURITY OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF MARTIAL STATE AND POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION

Abstract

The article examines the key aspects of Ukraine’s budgetary stability amid the full-scale war and prospects for post-war recovery. It analyzes the transformation of the budget system’s functions from ensuring macroeconomic balance to serving as an instrument of national survival and defense capability. Based on data for 2021–2025, the dynamics of main budgetary security indicators are studied. The study highlights the critical role of external financial assistance as the primary source of deficit financing in the initial stages of the war, alongside the gradual strengthening of domestic financing sources (increasing share of domestic government bonds – OVDPs). It explores the evolution of the budget through three distinct phases: pre-war stability in 2021, acute crisis in 2022, and gradual stabilization and adaptation in 2023–2025. The article emphasizes that while high international reserves and international partner support have prevented financial collapse and supported economic resilience, prolonged reliance on external aid poses risks of debt traps, inflationary pressures, and limited fiscal space for reconstruction. Proposed measures for enhancing fiscal sustainability include expanding the tax base, optimizing public expenditures, strategic debt management, institutional reforms, digital transformation of financial processes, and attracting private capital for infrastructure, energy, transport, and digital economy modernization. The findings conclude that transitioning from crisis management to sustainable economic growth requires a comprehensive overhaul of budgetary policy, reduced dependence on external assistance, and the activation of internal reserves. This pivotal moment demands decisive actions to create a stable regulatory environment, protect investments, combat corruption, and foster innovation in key economic sectors. Positive signals-growing reserves, moderating deficit, and GDP recovery-provide a foundation for these changes, provided consistent domestic reforms and continued international support are maintained. Only through such synergy can Ukraine achieve economic revival and a resilient development path.