CONCEPT OF COMPETITIVE STRATEGY OF A COMMERCIAL BANK UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY
Abstract
The relevance of the research is driven by the critical need for Ukrainian commercial banks to adapt to the unprecedented turbulence caused by martial law and deep structural transformations in the financial sector. Functioning under conditions of fourth-level uncertainty renders traditional linear planning methods and intuitive management ineffective, as they fail to account for the complexity and non-linearity of modern market processes. Consequently, there is an objective demand for scientific tools capable of processing large data arrays to identify hidden patterns in client and competitor behavior. The primary purpose of this article is to develop and theoretically substantiate a concept of competitive strategy for a commercial bank under conditions of uncertainty, based on the complex application of economic-mathematical modeling. This approach aims to maximize interest income and ensure financial stability by accounting for dynamic environmental changes and potential competitor reactions. To achieve the set objectives, the study employs a comprehensive set of general scientific and special research methods. The methodological basis includes cluster analysis to identify homogeneous groups of direct competitors within the banking sector, ensuring a targeted strategic focus. Central to the methodology is the construction of a conceptual adaptive simulation model comprising four key blocks: external environment dynamics, the bank's behavior algorithms, competitors' actions, and the mechanism of their market interaction. The study yields a scientifically grounded adaptive model for competitive strategy formation. The modeling results demonstrated that applying the proposed concept allows the bank to move away from subjective judgment in pricing towards mathematically verified strategies. The practical value of the research lies in providing bank management with an effective applied toolkit for strategic decision-making. This approach transforms the strategy from a formal document into a dynamic instrument for survival and growth, enhancing the institution's resilience against macroeconomic shocks and competitive pressure.
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Zsámboki, B. et al. (2025). Buffer usability in a complex world (ECB Occasional Paper Series No. 374). Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank.
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