STRATEGIC VECTORS OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

In the context of prolonged military aggression and the destruction of global supply chains, the agricultural sector of Ukraine has found itself at the epicenter of a systemic crisis, which requires an immediate transition from static planning models to flexible survival tools. The purpose of the section is to scientifically substantiate the strategic vectors of industry development and develop adaptive management mechanisms capable of ensuring the operational viability of business entities in conditions of extreme uncertainty. The study focuses on the synergy of sustainable development, digital innovations and international institutional support as the foundation of post-war recovery. The methodological basis of the section is formed on the basis of a systems approach and scenario forecasting methods, which allowed modeling the likely trajectories of industry development depending on the variability of security determinants. Methods of economic and statistical analysis were used to assess the dynamics of export flows and comparative analysis in the study of European integration requirements (in particular, the CBAM mechanism). The use of precision risk modeling allowed parameterizing the levels of resilience of agricultural clusters, and the abstract-logical method served as the basis for forming the concept of an adaptive management strategy. The main result of the study is the development of a three-level model of scenario forecasting of the agricultural sector, which takes into account environmental, social and economic criteria of sustainable development. The author detailed the algorithm for forming an adaptive security strategy, which involves the introduction of preventive blocks into the enterprise management system to level military challenges. It is proven that an effective transition to sustainable growth is possible only if international cooperation with international institutions acting as guarantors of investment security is intensified. It is determined that the key tool of European integration should be the introduction of Sustainability-Linked Loans (SLLs), which stimulate decarbonization and technological modernization through financial preferences. The results obtained have direct practical significance for the development of state strategies for agricultural development and anti-crisis programs for the management of agricultural holdings. The proposed scenario models can be used by government agencies for precise planning of food reserves and logistics corridors. The adaptive management methodology provides agribusiness managers with tools for rapid restructuring of operational processes in response to changing security contexts, which contributes to maintaining competitiveness in external markets in the post-war period.