RISK-ORIENTED MODEL OF TAX CONTROL AS A TOOL FOR SECURING BUDGET REVENUES

Abstract

The article examines a risk-oriented approach to tax control in Ukraine as an effective tool for ensuring stable budget revenues and improving tax discipline. The problem is caused by current structural transformations in the economy and the growth of tax risks, which requires improving the tax risk management system to ensure Ukraine's financial security and fulfill the state's socio-economic functions. An analysis of scientific research has shown that the issues of identifying tax risks, methods of their assessment and management are actively studied by domestic economists, but there is insufficient integration of modern digital technologies and limited analytical tools, which complicates the practical application of a risk-oriented model of tax risk management. The article defines tax risk as the probability of a taxpayer's failure to fulfill their tax obligations and reveals the criteria for taxpayer risk, including tax discipline, financial and economic activities, tax burden, transactions with non-residents, and transfer pricing. The use of these criteria allows regulatory authorities to effectively identify high-risk enterprises, prevent tax evasion, and increase the transparency of the business environment. Based on an analysis of tax revenue dynamics, the feasibility of focusing control measures on risky business entities is justified. It is emphasized that the implementation of systematic tax risk management contributes to improving the efficiency and transparency of tax administration. The study analyzes the tax risk management system, which includes the stages of identification, analysis, assessment, and response to risks, followed by monitoring the effectiveness of measures. The emphasis is on preventive and analytical measures, process automation, and increasing the objectivity of control. It is concluded that a risk-oriented model of tax control contributes to improving the efficiency of administration, reducing tax violations, and encouraging voluntary compliance with tax obligations by taxpayers. Further development of the model is possible through the improvement of regulatory and legal support, strengthening interagency cooperation, and active use of digital technologies in the process of tax risk management.