PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETAIL IN UKRAINE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WORLD TRENDS

Abstract

The article examines the current development trajectory of Ukraine’s retail sector, focusing on the FMCG segment, which remains one of the most dynamic components of the national economy. The study highlights the sensitivity of retail to war-related disruptions, changes in consumer behaviour and volatility in logistics and pricing environments. The analysis of retail turnover in 2021–2024 reveals a complex pattern: a decline during the peak of wartime shocks followed by a significant recovery driven by business adaptation, stabilization of supply chains and the reactivation of deferred demand. Particular attention is paid to the key drivers shaping today’s retail landscape, including the expansion of private labels, intensification of promotional strategies, rapid growth of online sales and the strengthening role of large system-based retail networks. The research also emphasizes structural transformations in the spatial organization of retail, namely the dominance of large multi-format chains alongside the accelerated development of regional operators. The diversification of business models and the rise of convenience formats indicate increasing market flexibility. The study additionally underscores the influence of price dynamics, shifts in consumer priorities toward essential goods, and the growing demand for affordable product categories, which further reshape the competitive environment. Based on the assessment of competitive dynamics and network expansion indicators, the study outlines the prospects for post-war retail development in Ukraine. These prospects are associated with investment recovery, modernization of retail formats, workforce return, further digital transformation and the implementation of global trends such as personalization, data-driven management, rapid delivery models and sustainability standards, as reflected in Euromonitor’s international reports. The findings demonstrate that Ukrainian retail shows resilience and significant potential for further integration into the global innovation-driven retail ecosystem, highlighting its capacity to adapt to uncertainty and generate new strategic opportunities.