ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL DATA ON UKRAINE’S FOREIGN TRADE IN GOODS

Abstract

This work examines Ukraine’s export and import activity in goods based on statistical data covering a 48-month period from 2021 to 2024, with the aim of identifying key directions and trends in the development of trade operations and forecasting the country’s prospects under martial law conditions. The research is relevant considering current changes in the external environment and Ukraine’s position in the global market. The initial analysis of the presented statistical data did not reveal a clear trend in the changes of Ukraine's foreign trade indicators in goods. To analyze the time series of import and export volumes, econometric tools implemented in modern software applications were employed. To apply correlation-regression analysis for constructing statistically significant regression equations, the time series were tested for stationarity using the Dickey-Fuller test and the Foster-Stewart method. The analysis showed that the time series of export volumes was non-stationary. The time series of import volumes was found to be stationary according to both methodologies, although the Foster-Stewart method indicated a trend in the mean, suggesting non-stationarity in that aspect. To transform the export volume time series into a stationary one, the method of double simple moving average (SMA) was applied, which enabled the construction of regression equations with a higher degree of accuracy. The analysis of the stationary time series of Ukraine's import volumes revealed a cyclical pattern in the development of the studied process, which recurs annually and demonstrates a linear character. Based on the constructed regression equations, the nature and trends of the country’s foreign trade in goods were identified, and possible export and import volumes were forecasted for the next two periods. A comparative analysis of the forecast and actual data confirmed the high reliability of the built models. The results presented in this work made it possible to assess the development of Ukraine's foreign economic activity under the current conditions of martial law, evaluate its future prospects, and determine the necessity of monitoring global trends to determine the impact of changes in the global socio-political and economic environment on the further development of the studied process.