ANALYSIS OF KEY ENERGY CONSUMPTION MODELS IN THE CONTEXT OF MODERN UKRAINE

Abstract

The article addresses the issue of modeling electricity consumption volumes. In the context of full-scale war in Ukraine, electricity has become one of the most significant consumption products in the country, constituting a substantial portion of the costs across nearly all sectors of the economy. As a result, forecasting, modeling, and constructing long-term estimates of electricity consumption dynamics have gained particular relevance for the country. This is a critical element in the plans for the balanced development and growth of national economic sectors in the post-war period. The energy situation presents new demands on the quality of mathematical forecasts, especially regarding integrated long-term predictions. Existing methods for long-term electricity consumption forecasting and the models developed based on them are often not used comprehensively enough, which frequently leads to significant errors in the forecasts. In the field of systems research, there have been significant changes in the understanding of the hierarchy of energy systems and approaches to forecasting. Mathematical models of energy systems have become an integral tool in the development of government forecasts and business plans for companies, and the requirements for these models have grown considerably. Forecasts and plans now need to be directly linked to the financial indicators of companies, which determine their ability to accumulate internal funds and attract external investments. This has greatly complicated the process of modeling the interrelationships between energy and the economy. This paper attempts to comprehensively assess the degree to which existing methods and models meet the new requirements and challenges in Ukraine, as well as to identify directions for their improvement. The primary goal is to develop approaches that will effectively address key issues related to the study and consideration of the interconnections between energy and the economy. Particular attention is given to the issues arising in long-term forecasting and the formation of state energy policy, which requires modernization of the analytical and modeling tools currently in use.