THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING: DOMESTIC EXPERIENCE

Abstract

The need to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators is due to the state's need to determine the ways of society's development for the current period and the future, justifying the main directions of economic and social policy, predicting the consequences of decisions made and developing specific measures to achieve the set goals and priorities, justifying the economic resources necessary to achieve them, identification of the most possible and cost-effective development options for the future. The article describes such concepts as forecasting and forecasting, and lists the stages of forecasting. In the case when decisions are made taking into account the analysis of stochastic, incomplete information, the use of methods of economic and mathematical modeling and analysis is not only justified, but also necessary. When moving to market relations, the use of econometric models for the purpose of forecasting complex statistical aggregates becomes relevant, since the tool used for analysis is adequate to the object of the market economy being analyzed. A critical analysis of methods and results of econometric studies showed that many problems of both methodological and practical nature remain unsolved. The main problems that arise in the process of developing an econometric model: the quality of statistical data; use of deflators to translate indicators into constant prices; the possibility of including conditional variables in the model. A set of factors influencing the accuracy of the forecast was determined: the amount of initial data and the period of their collection; properties of the object amenable to prediction; forecasting methods and approaches. The forecasting stages are characterized: data collection; data reduction or compression; construction of the model and its evaluation; extrapolation of the selected model (actual forecast); evaluation of the received forecast. An analysis of the features of long-term forecasting of economic development is carried out, methods acceptable for use in the process of long-term forecasting are determined.