MODELLING TRENDS IN THE UKRAINIAN BOND INDEX (UB)
Abstract
The article is concerned with modelling trends in the development of indicators of the Ukrainian bonds index UB, which characterises the Ukrainian debt market. The aim of the article is to study the trends in the indicator of Ukraine's debt obligations - the Ukrainian Bond Index (UB). The purpose of the study is to develop a forecast for the development of the Ukrainian bond market based on the identified patterns. Given that the share of government debt instruments in the Ukrainian bond market is 98%, the analysis of the UB index reveals the state of the government securities market. The analysed period covers 2019-2023. The time period under study is characterised by various market fluctuations. The market is characterised by overheating and compensatory periods of deep decline. Therefore, for the sake of modelling accuracy, this time period was divided into three: January 2019 - June 2020, July 2020 - December 2021, and January 2022 - October 2023. The first period reveals the impact of the presidential elections on the market, the second, although characterised by a market decline, reflects seasonal fluctuations inherent in the market, and the last period characterises the debt market during the war. The study conducted modelling based on the study of trends using time series. Using the levelling trend formula, the index targets for 2024-2025 are calculated. The main indicators of influence on the market are identified: seasonal fluctuations and political factors. The impact of martial law in Ukraine on the debt securities market is highlighted. After identifying the trends, the seasonality indices and the index of influence of the presidential elections on the indicators of the studied index are calculated. Based on the identified indices, the previously determined index indicators for 2024-2025 were adjusted under the influence of the inherent impact indicators. Conclusions about further prospects for the development of the Ukrainian debt market are drawn. The article suggests ways to improve the tendencies of attracting funds to the budget. An important task in Ukraine today is to create conditions for the effective functioning of the government securities market as a mechanism for redistributing financial resources, which helps to increase investment in the domestic economy.
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