CONCEPTUAL BASIS OF THE CREATION OF THE SYSTEM OF SCIENTIFIC AND PROGNOSTIC PROCESSING OF MARITIME ACTIVITIES OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the fundamental principles regarding the creation of a system of scientific and prognostic support for the maritime activity of Ukraine. It was determined that in the current conditions, forecasting itself becomes an important element of scientific and technical support for the processes of long-term development of integrated sea use. It is determined that Foresight is a large set of forecasting techniques that meet the needs of decision-making at the state level. The diagnosis of institutional problems of foresight studies was carried out. The foreign experience of forming an institutional system for carrying out foresight research in the maritime sphere is summarized. The structure of the forecasting method Foresight is analyzed, which includes two main components: (1) structured prediction and projection of long-term social, economic and technological development and related needs; (2) interactive methods of scientific debate, analysis and research that involve broad participation of interested parties and not only a narrow circle of experts, as in the case of traditional forecasting. The article determined that Foresight is the most effective tool for determining the priority areas of science and technology, as well as for analyzing the prerequisites, main trends, scenarios and factors of long-term economic, social and political development. Based on the results of the foresight, large-scale national and international research programs, long-term strategies for the development of the economy, science, and technology are formed, aimed at increasing competitiveness and the most effective development of maritime activities, in particular. It is proven that in the conditions of a transformational economy, a competently built system of political decisions, based on developed long-term development strategies using scenario forecasting methods, creates opportunities for choosing the most desirable management decisions in the current situation. The article presents the methodological principles of the organization of foresight studies, analyzed the possibilities of applying world and European experience in the implementation of foresight, taking into account the specifics of maritime management.