RISK-SENSITIVE MODELING FRAMEWORK OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF ECONOMIC SECURITY
Abstract
The circular economy is increasingly viewed as a strategic tool for enhancing economic security by reducing resource dependency, mitigating supply chain vulnerabilities, and strengthening systemic resilience. Its significance now extends beyond environmental sustainability to include macroeconomic stability and national security, especially amid global uncertainty and geopolitical fragmentation. Yet, most analytical approaches overlook multidimensional risks shaping circular economy performance, particularly in crisis-prone contexts. This article introduces an integrated framework linking circular economy development, risk dynamics, and economic security outcomes. It combines a system-based model of economic security covering financial stability, energy security, innovation potential, environmental safety, and social welfare with a risk matrix addressing economic, environmental, geopolitical, social, and technological factors. The framework supports risk-informed policy design, enabling the integration of circular strategies into broader resilience agendas under persistent uncertainty.
References
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Geissdoerfer M., Savaget P., Bocken N. M. P., Hultink E. J. The circular economy – A new sustainability paradigm? Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, vol. 143, pp. 757–768. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.048
OECD. Monitoring progress towards a resource efficient and circular economy. OECD Publishing, 2024. DOI: 10.1787/3b644b83-en
European Commission. A new Circular Economy Action Plan: For a cleaner and more competitive Europe (COM (2020) 98 final). Brussels, 2020. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/ip_20_420/IP_20_420_EN.pdf
Tura N., Hanski J., Ahola T., Ståhle M., Piiparinen S., Valkokari P. Unlocking circular business: A framework of barriers and drivers. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, vol. 212, pp. 90–98. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.202
Ritzén S., Sandström G. Ö. Barriers to the circular economy – Integration of perspectives and domains. Procedia CIRP, 2017, vol. 64, pp. 7–12. DOI: 10.1016/j.procir.2017.03.005
Govindan K., Hasanagic M. A systematic review on drivers, barriers, and practices towards circular economy: a supply chain perspective. International Journal of Production Research, 2018, vol. 56, no. 1–2, pp. 278–311. DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2017.1402141
Gennari F. Strategic Risk-Based Approach for the Circular Economy. European Journal of Business Management and Research, 2024, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 24–32. DOI: 10.24018/ejbmr.2024.9.3.2294
AlMashaqbeh S., Munive-Hernandez J. E. Risk analysis under a circular economy context using a systems thinking approach. Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, no. 5, p. 4141. DOI: 10.3390/su15054141
Prendi K., Murrja A. Identification of risks in circular economy practices: A systematic review of academic studies. Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets & Institutions, 2025, vol. 15, no. 1, p. 130. DOI: 10.22495/rgcv15i1p13
Acemoglu D., Robinson J. A. Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. Crown Business, 2012.
Collier P., Elliott V. L., Hegre H., Hoeffler A., Reynal-Querol M., Sambanis N. Breaking the conflict trap. World Bank, 2003.
OECD. OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review Navigating Risks, 2025.
Walker B., Holling C. S., Carpenter S. R., Kinzig A. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecology and Society, 2010, vol. 9, no. 2, p. 5. DOI: 10.5751/ES-00650-090205
Sterman J. D. Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill, 2000.
Meadows D. H. Thinking in systems: A primer. Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008.
UN Environment. The Environmental Impact of the Conflict in Ukraine: A Preliminary Review. UNEP, 2022. URL: https://www.unep.org/resources/report/environmental-impact-conflict-ukraine-preliminary-review
Saidani M., Yannou B., Leroy Y., Cluzel F., Kendall A. A taxonomy of circular economy indicators. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, vol. 207, pp. 542–559. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.014
Corona B., Shen L., Reike D., Rosales Carreón J., Worrell E. Towards sustainable development through the circular economy – A review and critical assessment on current circularity metrics. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 151(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104498
Kovalenko B. Theoretical framework of modeling the systemic impact of circular economy development on economic security. Actual Problems of Economics, 2025, vol. 1(288), pp. 114–134. DOI: 10.32752/1993-6788-2025-1-288-114-134
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