TRANSFORMATION OF BRAZIL’S MILITARY EXPENDITURE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE GLOBAL ARMS RACE

Abstract

This article investigates the transformation of Brazil’s military expenditures within the context of the intensified global arms race. The primary objective of the study is to identify and systematize the key determinants shaping Brazilian defense budgeting policy, with a specific focus on elucidating the apparent contradiction between mounting external systemic pressure and the country’s internal fiscal dynamics. Methodologically, the research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining comparative time-series analysis of datasets from leading international institutions, regression analysis to quantify the influence of various independent variables, and detailed budgetary analysis of expenditure structures within the Brazilian defense sector. The core findings reveal a significant and persistent decoupling of Brazil’s military spending trajectory from global trends. The analysis demonstrates a lack of statistically significant correlation between annual changes in Brazil’s defense budget and global expenditure growth rates. Instead, the dominant determinant is identified as the internal fiscal regime. Consequently, Brazil has developed a distinct model of fiscally constrained, «qualitatively selective adaptation». This model is characterized by the explicit rejection of quantitative budget expansion in favor of internal reallocation within a shrinking or stagnant fiscal envelope. The practical. First, it provides a concrete analytical framework for comprehending how domestic institutions of fiscal discipline, often established during earlier periods of democratic consolidation, can fundamentally shape a state's external strategic posture and its response to international security crises. Second, the Brazilian case offers a valuable comparative benchmark for analyzing the behavior of other «secondary» or regional powers caught between global pressures and domestic limitations. The insights derived contribute forecasting of international relations, moving beyond simplistic assumptions that all states will proportionally increase military capabilities in response to systemic instability.