CLIMATE CHANGE AS A NEW FACTOR IN THE ECONOMICS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND USE

Abstract

The study is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the impact of global climate change on the economic efficiency of agricultural land use. A generalized classification of existing types of land use efficiency is proposed. The work examines both direct and indirect consequences of climate change, which manifest themselves through modification of the timing and duration of growing seasons, changes in precipitation patterns, increases in average surface temperatures, and increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, storms, and forest fires. The author of the study found that these climatic shifts lead to reduced yields, deterioration in the quality of agricultural products, and increased production costs, which negatively affects the profitability of the agricultural sector. The paper analyzes a set of modern mathematical models (GLOBIOM, MPI-M-REMO, ECHAM5-r3, EUROPAMODELL), which allow spatial prediction of the impact of climate change on the distribution of crop areas, assessment of adaptation costs, and modeling of economic scenarios for different regions. A detailed analysis of changes in the structure of land use was carried out, which includes a change in the typical range of crops grown and adaptation to new climatic conditions, and the impact on land rent was determined as an indicator of excess profit generated as a result of the exploitation of limited resources. To assess the economic effect of climate adaptation measures, an extended model was developed, according to which the net income of the enterprise is determined by the inequality: (P + Re) – (B + Be) > 0, where R is current income, B is current costs, and Re and Be are effects and additional costs of adaptation, respectively. In the context of Ukraine, where the agricultural sector is key to the economy, it has been found that climate change affects both productivity and the economic viability of agricultural enterprises, which necessitates the implementation of adaptation technologies, the modernization of irrigation systems, the use of drought-resistant crop varieties and the introduction of innovative production management methods.