RISKS OF THE BANKING SECTOR IN THE CONTEXT OF MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY

Abstract

The aim of the article is to identify the key risks faced by the banking sector in times of macroeconomic instability, as well as to develop theoretical and methodological approaches to minimizing them. The relevance of the topic is due to the growing instability in the global economy, which affects the financial system of Ukraine, increasing the level of risks for banking institutions and requiring the development of effective risk management mechanisms to ensure the stability of the banking system and the economic security of the state. It is substantiated that the qualitative classification of banking risks plays a strategically important role in the process of forming preventive measures aimed at minimizing financial losses and ensuring the stability of the banking system. The study uses a set of methods, including structural and logical analysis to systematize banking risks, economic and statistical analysis to assess their impact on the financial stability of banks, a comparative method to analyze the dynamics of risks in times of crisis, and the method of expert assessments to forecast possible scenarios. The study found that in the context of macroeconomic instability, credit, currency, liquidity and capital risks have the greatest impact on the banking sector. It is determined that the level of these risks is influenced by both internal factors, such as the financial stability of banks and the effectiveness of their risk management strategies, and external determinants, in particular political instability, inflationary processes and currency market fluctuations. It has been found that despite some stabilization of the economic situation, financial institutions' expectations of further risk development remain cautious. The practical value of the article lies in the possibility of using the obtained results to improve the mechanisms of banking risk management in the context of macroeconomic instability. The proposed approaches can be useful both for banking institutions in developing a risk management strategy and for regulatory authorities in improving their financial sector supervision policies.