THE WESTERN BALKANS SINCE THE OUTBREAK OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: BETWEEN GEOPOLITICAL VULNERABILITY AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

Abstract

This article examines the transformation of the political, security, and information architecture of the Western Balkans following the onset of the Russian Federation’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine in 2022. The focus is on the change in the region’s geopolitical status, which, amid intensifying global competition between the European Union, NATO, and Russia, is transforming into an arena of strategic rivalry and hybrid influence. The theoretical and empirical foundation of the study consists of analytical materials from the collection “The Future of the Western Balkans after Russian Aggression in Ukraine: What’s Next?” (2025), as well as works by Ukrainian and foreign researchers devoted to issues of regional security, information warfare, and European integration. The article analyzes the key mechanisms of Russian influence in the region, including information campaigns, cultural and religious diplomacy, and support for political actors oriented toward development models alternative to Euro-Atlantic ones. Particular attention is paid to Serbia’s position as a central element of regional instability, combining a declared pro-European orientation with support for strategic ties with the Russian Federation. It is shown that such a policy exacerbates internal differentiation within the region and complicates the consolidation processes in the Western Balkans. An important aspect of the study is the analysis of Ukraine’s role as a catalyst for change in regional political orientations. It has been established that the reaction of the Western Balkan states to the Russian-Ukrainian war served as an indicator of their civilizational choice between democratic and authoritarian models of development. At the same time, the war contributed to the intensification of the European Union’s enlargement policy and a rethinking of security approaches in Southeast Europe. It is summarized that the Western Balkans are gradually transforming from a peripheral region into a key element of the European security architecture, where integration processes and external geopolitical influence converge. The study’s findings confirm that the region’s stability directly depends on the effectiveness of European integration processes, the resilience of state institutions, and the ability to counter hybrid threats in the new international reality.