ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF FUTURES PRICE DYNAMICS ON INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGES AND PROSPECTS FOR EXCHANGE TRADING DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The article investigates the patterns of formation and forecasting of futures prices on leading international commodity and stock exchanges. The purpose of the study is to analyze the structural dynamics of derivatives trading on global platforms and to apply econometric modeling tools for estimating the conditional volatility of energy futures contracts. The methodology is based on the application of the GARCH(1,1) model to the daily return series of Brent crude oil futures contracts for the period 2019–2025, implemented in the MATLAB environment. The analysis covers trading volumes and asset class structure at CME Group, ICE Futures Europe, and Eurex, with particular emphasis on the record average daily volume of 28.1 million contracts at CME Group in 2025, representing a 6% year-over-year increase. The results demonstrate that the GARCH(1,1) specification adequately captures volatility clustering in futures returns, with statistically significant parameter estimates confirming persistent conditional heteroscedasticity. The Strait of Hormuz crisis in early 2026 is identified as a major supply shock that pushed Brent prices from $61/bbl to $118/bbl within a single quarter. The study contributes to the broader literature on financial market infrastructure by linking global futures price formation with the institutional constraints of emerging exchange systems. Its findings indicate that effective derivatives market development requires not only the introduction of standardized futures instruments but also transparent clearing mechanisms, reliable market data infrastructure, sufficient liquidity, and regulatory harmonization with European financial standards. In the Ukrainian context, the dominance of government bond transactions reflects the limited diversification of organized exchange trading and highlights the need for gradual market deepening through energy, agricultural, and currency derivatives. Therefore, the proposed econometric approach may be used not only for volatility forecasting but also for designing risk-management tools for institutional investors, commodity producers, financial intermediaries, and policymakers involved in rebuilding Ukraine’s capital market architecture.