ASSESSMENT OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC CHANGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIFE INSURANCE MARKET IN UKRAINE UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY AND GENERALITY RISK

Abstract

The post-war formation of a modern model of social responsibility requires the widespread use of insurance to counter risks that threaten citizens’ lives, health, and working capacity. The combination of protective and investment functions in life insurance contracts creates the most favorable financial security guarantees for clients of insurance companies. The purpose of this study is to identify and assess the factors influencing the impact of macroeconomic changes on the dynamics of the life insurance market in Ukraine and to develop predictive models of its post-war development. Various methods were used in the research process, in particular: the abstract-logical method to specify the research methodology and substantiate theoretical generalizations; economic and mathematical methods to reflect the dynamics of changes in key parameters of the life insurance market in Ukraine for 2016–2025; the time series and forecasting method to build the ARIMA(1,1,1) model and forecast the volume of life insurance premiums for 2026–2028; and graphical and tabular methods to visually display the results. The study shows that the key macroeconomic factors influencing the life insurance market include demographic, economic, social and technological factors. According to the results of correlation analysis (based on Pearson's coefficient), a strong positive relationship was found between GDP growth and the volume of life insurance premiums (r ≈ 0.78–0.85), while inflationary processes indicate a moderate negative impact (r ≈ -0.55–-0.68), and indicators such as the unemployment rate and the real interest rate also demonstrate a negative relationship (r ≈ -0.40 – -0.60). The practical value of the study lies in the development and testing of the ARIMA model for forecasting premium volumes for 2026–2028 under three scenarios (optimistic, baseline, pessimistic). The results indicate the existing potential for the development of the life insurance market in Ukraine. However, its realization requires the implementation of coordinated strategies, namely: positioning in the market of hybrid insurance services, leveraging the opportunities of digitalization in the insurance process and strengthening risk management in the activities of insurance companies. The practical implementation of the outlined strategies will allow the life insurance market to be considered an integral element of Ukraine’s post-war socio-economic.