SCENARIO PLANNING FOR RESILIENCE, FLEXIBILITY AND EFFICIENCY OF HEALTHCARE VALUE CHAINS IN UKRAINE: THE ENTERPRISE MICRO-LEVEL
Abstract
The article addresses the critical need for enterprise-level scenario planning tools tailored to healthcare value chain actors in Ukraine under wartime conditions. While resilience, flexibility, and efficiency have been studied at the macro level, their operationalization at the enterprise (micro) level – across distinct value chain players – remains an underdeveloped area in both theory and practice. The research aims to fill this gap by developing a targeted scenario planning methodology for each category of healthcare micro-level actor: pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers, distribution and logistics companies, healthcare service providers, and retail and pharmacy sector enterprises. The study combines the theoretical triadic framework of resilience–flexibility–efficiency, previously formalized by the author in quantitative terms, with applied scenario planning methodology drawn from strategic management and operations research. Risk assessment matrices are developed for each value chain segment, calibrated to Ukrainian data from the 2022–2024 wartime period. Crisis scenario simulation protocols are designed for adaptive capacity testing at the individual enterprise level, drawing on actual disruption events documented in Ukraine's healthcare system. Results. For each of the four actor categories, the article identifies primary risk profiles, proposes segment-specific risk priority number (RPN) matrices, develops four-scenario planning matrices reflecting conditions from active conflict to post-war reconstruction, and prescribes crisis simulation exercises for adaptive testing. The research reveals that different enterprise types face fundamentally different risk topologies: manufacturers face input and energy disruption risks; distributors face network topology and cold-chain integrity risks; service providers face demand surge and staffing risks; pharmacy enterprises face price volatility and supply continuity risks. Practical value. The proposed scenario planning toolkit, risk matrices, and simulation protocols are directly applicable by enterprise managers, risk officers, and healthcare regulators in Ukraine. The methodology enables organizations to build measurable resilience and adaptive capacity, quantified through the HCVR-Index framework, and to prepare for both ongoing wartime conditions and the demands of post-war reconstruction aligned with EU integration standards.
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