ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL LITERACY ON CYBERSECURITY FINANCIAL RISKS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EU COUNTRIES AND UKRAINE

Abstract

The relationship between the level of digital literacy of the population in the field of cybersecurity and the volume of financial losses from cybercrime in the Member States of the European Union and in Ukraine has been studied. The relevance of the study is driven by the rapid and accelerating growth of damages caused by cyber fraud, as consistently documented in regular reports by ENISA, Europol (IOCTA 2025), and NCCC. The study is grounded in the premise that the human factor remains the most critical vulnerability in the cybersecurity chain, with over 60% of successful cyber incidents relying on social engineering techniques. Despite significant advances in technical protection systems, the behavioral and educational dimensions of cybersecurity continue to be underexplored in quantitative research, particularly with respect to their direct financial impact at the national level. Using data from the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), the Digital Skills Indicator (DSI) covering the period 2021–2025, and findings from Europol IOCTA 2023, 2025 and ENISA 2025 reports, a multivariate regression model was constructed to quantify the dependence of the Financial Risk Index on two key variables: the level of cybersecurity digital skills among the population and the market value of data breaches. The model demonstrates high statistical reliability, with a coefficient of determination R2=0.90, and Fisher's criterion F=32.03, confirming its validity and practical applicability. The findings confirm the hypothesis that a critical threshold of digital competence exists, above which the effectiveness of social engineering attacks is substantially reduced and mass cyber fraud becomes economically unviable for perpetrators. Three distinct zones of digital resilience were identified: low-skill (Romania, Bulgaria), transitional-level (Germany, France, Ukraine), and “digital fortresses” (Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia). The analysis established that a 1% increase in cybersecurity skills reduces the Financial Risk Index by 1.93 points, while a one-point rise in data value increases the risk index by 16.52 points. This asymmetry highlights the need to combine broad-based educational initiatives with advanced technological protection measures. The case of Ukraine is highlighted as particularly instructive: despite lower living standards, the country has achieved a transitional level of cyber resilience through intensive awareness programs, real-world exposure to threats, and national digital literacy platforms, demonstrating that education-driven cybersecurity can be a powerful instrument of economic protection.