NEW WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AGAINST GEO-ECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the fundamental confrontation between two defining macroeconomic forces of the early 21st century: the processes of geo-economic fragmentation and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The paper argues that the modern world economic architecture is at a bifurcation point, where the politically motivated separation of trade and financial blocs comes into direct conflict with the technological logic of AI, which requires the barrier-free exchange of data, capital and computing resources. The economic consequences of fragmentation are analyzed in detail, which, according to estimates by international institutions (IMF, World Bank, WTO), can lead to a loss of up to 5% of global GDP in the short term and up to 11% for emerging market countries. Special attention is paid to the role of AI as a “general purpose technology” (GPT), which is capable of neutralizing some of the negative effects of fragmentation through a radical reduction in transaction costs in international trade, increasing the efficiency of supply chains by 40-60%, and creating new opportunities for digital export of services. The article examines the technological rivalry between the United States and China, which is forming “digital fortresses” and accelerating the dedollarization of financial reserves through the integration of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Based on the analysis of the works of leading domestic scientists (M. Zgurovsky, O. Shvydanenko, Ya. Stolyarchuk, and others), strategic priorities for Ukraine are identified, which, in the conditions of military aggression and the destruction of traditional industrial ties, has a chance for a “digital leap” through the development of MilTech and integration into Western innovation ecosystems. The article contains forecast scenarios for the development of the world order until 2040, according to which the synergy of AI and digital platforms can ensure an increase in global trade by 34-37%, despite the persistence of geopolitical tensions. It is proven that victory in the fight for a new economic order will not go to the force that is better isolated, but to the one that will be able to build the most adaptive intelligent management systems in a fragmented world.