ASSESSMENT OF A TRADING ENTERPRISE’S STABILITY: INTEGRAL INDEX AND EARLY RISK WARNING INDICATORS
Abstract
The article substantiates a methodological approach to assessing the stability of a trading enterprise under wartime conditions through the combination of an integral stability index and a system of early risk warning indicators. The relevance is determined by the need to evaluate not only the current financial condition, but also the ability to maintain operational continuity, preserve market positions, and respond in advance to destructive changes. The purpose is to develop a practical analytical toolkit for comprehensive diagnosis of enterprise stability and identification of crisis signals before they transform into losses, liquidity gaps, supply disruptions, or sales decline. The methodological basis includes comparative analysis of scientific approaches, integral evaluation, risk management, and key risk indicators; logical generalization; grouping by financial, operational, and market dimensions; linear normalization; weighted aggregation; and scenario-based interpretation. The proposed integral index is formed from representative indicators, including liquidity, capital autonomy, return on sales, inventory turnover, operational downtime, and real sales volume dynamics. A basic weighting model is suggested in which the financial component has the highest priority, while operational and market components complement the assessment. The paper systematizes early warning indicators linked to critical wartime risks: demand decline, liquidity shortage, supply interruptions, power instability, staff turnover, and physical loss of assets. Threshold values are proposed for each indicator, making the model suitable for regular monitoring and preventive response. Approbation on model data demonstrates a sharp decrease in the stability index during the crisis period and only partial recovery after adaptation measures. This confirms that an integral assessment should be supplemented by signal indicators to reveal not only the fact of deterioration but also its source. The practical value lies in integrating the proposed approach into internal analytics, management dashboards, and anti-crisis decision-making procedures of trading enterprises.
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