MACRO-FINANCIAL ASSOCIATIONS WITH DEMAND AT OVDP AUCTIONS IN UKRAINE UNDER MARTIAL LAW
Abstract
The article examines whether monetary and macro-financial conditions are associated with investor demand at wartime primary auctions of Ukrainian domestic government bonds (OVDP). The empirical analysis uses auction-level records published by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and measures demand using the logarithms of the allocated and submitted volumes, both converted into UAH on the auction date. The wartime sample covers March 1, 2022, to March 31, 2026, while the period from January 1, 2021, to February 22, 2022, is used only for descriptive comparison. BTC is treated as a supplementary indicator because its wartime distribution is strongly right-skewed. OLS estimates with auction-date-clustered standard errors show that higher policy rates are associated with weaker auction demand, whereas liquidity is mostly positive but loses strength once quarter fixed effects are introduced in wartime.
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