ASSESSMENT OF BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS AS AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE MAIN TRENDS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The purpose of the work is to assess business expectations based on the main trends in the economic development of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine. The relevance of the study is associated with the need to find an effective tool for assessing business expectations, which is considered as an innovative approach to determining the main trends in economic development. The methodological tool for analyzing economic dynamics, which is based on the generalization of subjective business assessments of the current state of economic trends and the prospects for their development, is the innovative approach "Assessment of Business Expectations". The methodology is based on data from regular sample statistical surveys of enterprises in the economic sector of the economy. The considered approach to interpreting response balances through a combination of indicators of actual changes and expectations allows us to simultaneously assess the current state and prospective dynamics of the agricultural sector. The methodological principles of assessing the impact of the external economic environment on economic development by comparing average export balances to EU member states are considered, which made it possible to quantitatively prove the structural reorientation of external markets. The feasibility of using the system of business expectations balances as a leading indicator of structural changes in the development of the agricultural sector is substantiated, which is confirmed by quantitative calculations of the average values of indicators. The gap between production and personnel dynamics is identified and quantitatively confirmed, which indicates a transition to an intensive development model based on technological renewal and the role of behavioral factors in the formation of economic dynamics. It is proven that business expectations are positive even during periods of market fluctuations. It is proposed to apply a theoretical and methodological approach to the use of business expectations assessments as a tool for identifying economic development trends and making strategic management decisions in the agricultural sector of Ukraine. It is substantiated that the system of business expectations assessments is not only a descriptive statistical tool, but an analytical mechanism for forecasting and strategic diagnostics of the economic development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine, capable of reflecting structural, behavioral and market shifts at the early stages of its formation and development.