SCENARIO MODELING OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ADAPTIVE-RESILIENT MECHANISM OF STATE INFLUENCE IN WAR AND POST-WAR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Abstract
The article substantiates theoretical and methodological approaches to scenario modeling of the transformation of the adaptive-resilient mechanism of state influence in war and post-war economic conditions. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to develop effective public policy instruments capable of ensuring economic stability, adaptability, and resilience under conditions of uncertainty, external shocks, and structural changes. The research is based on modern concepts of economic resilience, which emphasize the ability of economic systems not only to recover from shocks but also to adapt and transform their structure. The integration of resilience and adaptability principles is proposed as a methodological basis for improving the mechanism of state influence in crisis conditions. A conceptual model of the adaptive-resilient mechanism of state influence is developed and interpreted as a dynamic system of interconnected functional blocks, including security, economic, social, and institutional components. It is shown that the effectiveness of this mechanism depends on their interaction and structural balance, which varies depending on the phase of economic development. A mathematical approach to assessing the integral efficiency of the mechanism is proposed, taking into account variable weights of functional components. Scenario modeling is applied as a key analytical tool for assessing alternative trajectories of economic development. Three scenarios are identified: pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic. The results confirm that the effectiveness of state policy depends not only on the level of development of individual components but also on their optimal combination and adaptability to changing conditions. Particular importance is attributed to institutional factors, investment policy, and international support in the post-war period. The proposed approach can be used to improve public policy effectiveness and support decision-making under economic instability.
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