THE TIME ASSESSMENT OF THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The article is devoted to the issues of calculating the forecast assessment of the development of the circular economy and determining the time limits for achieving the goals of the development of the circular economy in Ukraine. For this purpose, a methodology for the forecast assessment of the development of the circular economy has been developed. A system of circular economy indicators has been previously formed, based on the indicators used by Eurostat. On their basis, an integrated assessment of the development of the circular economy has been calculated using the Gray ratio coefficient. Next, the initial set of indicators and the integrated assessment of the circular economy were checked for multicollinearity. As a result, a purified final set of circular economy indicators was obtained, which includes: the ratio of GDP to the demand for material extraction; household waste generation per capita; the recycling rate of all waste, except for major mineral waste; the level of packaging waste recycling by type of packaging; the use rate of circular materials; greenhouse gas emissions from production activities. Additionally, the role of digital technologies in the development of the circular economy has been investigated. It is confirmed that digital technologies can support circular economy practices, since the cumulative significant impact of digital technology factors on individual areas of the circular economy has been established. The set of model indicators includes: the share of enterprises that have a website; the share of enterprises that use artificial intelligence technologies. Forecast calculations were carried out using two models built using the least squares method: Model 1 - based on statistical data on the state of the circular economy in Ukraine; Model 2 - taking into account the impact of digital technologies on the circular economy. It was found that both models are reliable and the parameter estimates are significant. Next, a comparison was made of circular economy development forecasts using Model 1 and Model 2 and the time limits for achieving circular economy development goals were calculated using the Bass model. The value of the EU integrated assessment in the last year of the retrospective period, equal to 0.71 in 2023, was chosen as achievable goals. It has been established that Ukraine will be able to achieve the level of circular economy in EU countries in 8 years and 3 months, that is, by 2035. At the same time, achieving the goals is possible only under conditions of large-scale investments, legislative reform, changes in consumption culture, and digitalization of resource tracking processes.