«GREEN» TRANSFORMATION AND ENERGY SECURITY OF UKRAINE: SEARCHING FOR BALANCE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD
Abstract
The article examines the features of the transformation of Ukraine’s energy sector in the context of post-war recovery, taking into account environmental challenges, military threats, and institutional constraints. The purpose of the study is to substantiate possible development trajectories of Ukraine’s energy sector through the analysis of environmental and climatic preconditions, renewable energy dynamics, changes in the generation structure, energy security risks, and the level of institutional transparency. The methodological framework of the research is based on comparative and structural analysis, dynamic analysis, scenario modeling, index-based assessment, and a systemic approach. The information base is formed using international environmental and energy rankings, statistical data, analytical reports, and sectoral research materials. The study reveals that the development of renewable energy during wartime and post-war periods is predominantly compensatory in nature and does not ensure full energy autonomy without integration with base-load generation and energy storage technologies. The destruction of the traditional energy balance model caused by the reduction of thermal and hydropower capacities and the growing vulnerability of grid infrastructure has been identified. It is demonstrated that systematic attacks on energy facilities generate long-term sectoral instability and increase the risks of electricity shortages, especially during peak consumption periods. The results of scenario analysis indicate that inertial and compensatory approaches provide only temporary stabilization without eliminating structural imbalances, whereas the innovation-driven “green” scenario creates comprehensive prerequisites for energy system modernization, investment attraction, and compliance with international climate commitments. It is also established that the decline in institutional transparency after 2022 has limited the sector’s investment attractiveness and slowed down the implementation of strategic projects. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in their applicability to the formulation of state energy policy, the development of post-war reconstruction programs, and the planning of renewable energy development measures.
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