HOUSEHOLDS WITH DIFFERENT PROBABILITIES OF EXITING POVERTY: STRUCTURAL CONSTRAINTS AND CHANNELS FOR INFLUENCING BEHAVIORAL STRATEGIES

Abstract

The article investigates the heterogeneity of Ukrainian households in terms of their probability of escaping poverty, combining structural constraints with behavioral economics perspectives. It emphasizes the need for a differentiated anti-poverty policy that accounts for varying responsiveness to behavioral interventions depending on available resources and objective limitations. Households fully or heavily dependent on external support (primarily those consisting of persons aged 75+, adults with disabilities (18-74), or their combinations) face severely restricted agency due to age, disability, or chronic illness. In 2023, poverty rates (income below actual subsistence minimum) reached 48% among households 75+, 57% where all working-age adults have disabilities, and 50,4% in the combined group, compared to the national average of 35,5%. These groups constitute only about 5,8% of all poor households and rely almost exclusively on social transfers, family, community, or charitable aid. Behavioral tools have minimal impact here; their coping strategies remain largely adaptive (cost-cutting, maximizing formal and informal support). Conversely, over 94% of poor households retain meaningful potential to modify employment, human capital investment, savings, and mobility patterns. The study highlights elevated poverty risks among the unemployed without severe disabilities (47,7%), households without higher education (45,5%), rural residents (47,5%), «young» pensioners 60-74 (51,2%), internally displaced persons. These groups exhibit behavioral traps: shortened planning horizons, status-quo bias, low self-efficacy, learned helplessness, and tolerance of low-productivity jobs. The article proposes targeted behavioral interventions via multiple channels: information and financial literacy campaigns, personalized nudges, simplified choice architecture in employment services and social protection, default options promoting active measures, micro-saving schemes, conditional transfers, co-financing of training, community role models, and early shock-absorption programs.