ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF MOTOR TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND WAR RISKS: INTEGRATION OF RESILIENCE AND ANTIFRAGILITY MODELS
Abstract
The article addresses the scientific and practical problem of developing an adaptive management mechanism for motor transport enterprises under martial law and extreme external uncertainty. The dynamics of the Ukrainian freight transportation market in 2022–2024 are analyzed, identifying structural transformations of logistics chains caused by infrastructure destruction, seaport blockades, and the reorientation of trade flows to western borders. Based on official statistics and analytical data, key groups of risks (physical, operational, economic, and personnel) and their non-linear impact on transport efficiency are identified. The necessity of a conceptual transition from resilience to antifragility is substantiated, emphasizing the ability of transport systems not only to recover but also to improve performance under stress. The theoretical framework integrates systems analysis, risk management, and constraint theory. To support decision-making under incomplete and vague information, an integrated mathematical model is proposed, combining fuzzy logic, the Fuzzy AHP method for determining criteria weights, and a multi-criteria utility function for ranking transportation alternatives. Unlike traditional approaches, the model explicitly incorporates the military risk factor as a dominant criterion, enabling a balanced assessment of transportation cost, delivery time, and cargo loss probability. Additionally, the study provides an economic justification for shifting inventory strategies from Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case. Modeling of total logistics costs demonstrates that under high delivery volatility and catastrophic shortage risks, buffer stock maintenance costs are lower than potential disruption losses. The practical value of the research lies in providing applied tools for scenario planning and operational management through the implementation of Digital Twin concepts, contributing to business continuity and transport security.
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