ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF DIGITALIZATION ON THE ASYMMETRY OF RETURNS DISTRIBUTION IN AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article is devoted to examining the relationship between the level of digitalization of agricultural enterprises and the asymmetry of their return distribution as one of the key characteristics of financial risk. Digitalization is considered a systemic factor that enhances the efficiency, transparency, and adaptability of business processes and thereby influences the stability of companies’ financial performance. The main channels through which digital technologies affect firms’ returns are identified, including the reduction of operational and informational risks, improvements in risk management, and increased predictability of profitability. The study reviews and systematizes existing approaches to assessing the level of company digitalization, as well as methods for calculating the return skewness coefficient (SKEW). To quantitatively evaluate the degree of digital transformation of agricultural enterprises, a methodology for constructing an integrated digitalization index (DigitalIndex) is proposed, which formally captures companies’ progress in implementing digital solutions. Based on empirical data, average values of the DigitalIndex over the past five years are calculated for a sample of agricultural companies. To assess the impact of digitalization on firms’ financial characteristics, panel data regression analysis is employed, allowing both temporal dynamics and inter-firm heterogeneity to be taken into account simultaneously. A fixed-effects panel regression model is estimated, ensuring correct identification of the impact of digital transformation on return asymmetry while controlling for other relevant factors. The empirical results indicate a statistically significant negative effect of digitalization on left-skewed return asymmetry, implying a lower probability of sharp negative price shocks. The estimated effects support the hypothesis that digital transformation plays a stabilizing role in the financial dynamics of agricultural companies. Digitalization reduces information asymmetry, enhances the transparency of financial reporting, improves the effectiveness of risk management, and strengthens firms’ ability to adapt to external shocks. Within the model, the digitalization index demonstrates the most robust and systematic impact, which allows it to be regarded not only as an analytical indicator but also as a strategic measure for assessing companies’ long-term development prospects.