ADAPTIVE MONETARY POLICY IN CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY: INSTITUTIONAL AND DIGITAL VECTORS OF REFORM
Abstract
The article develops the concept of adaptive monetary policy as a pragmatic response to modern global instability marked by structural shocks, geopolitical fragmentation, energy and logistics disruptions, and accelerated digitalization of financial systems. It shows that conventional monetary instruments increasingly lose effectiveness when payment activity and liquidity migrate to non-bank digital platforms and private ecosystems, while stablecoins and cryptoassets form parallel circuits of money circulation beyond the immediate reach of central banks. The research identifies the institutional, technological and behavioral determinants of policy adaptivity, and explains how the monetary transmission mechanism is transformed in a data-rich, platform-mediated environment where algorithms often shape transaction costs and expectations faster than interest-rate signals. Special attention is paid to the role of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in restoring the transmission mechanism, improving transparency of monetary flows and safeguarding monetary sovereignty amid the risk of “digital dollarization” and BigTech dominance. The paper argues for a shift from purely reactive rules to scenario-based, continuously updated regimes supported by big-data monitoring, hybrid forecasting models and adaptive central bank communication. Conceptual guidelines for new architecture of monetary regulation are proposed, combining institutional modernization, digital analytics, platform oversight and international coordination to increase resilience and policy credibility in the digital economy. It also outlines reform vectors: upgrading decision procedures, building real-time indicators from digital transactions, using machine learning for shock diagnostics, and designing CBDC frameworks that balance efficiency with financial stability and privacy. Conceptual approaches to shaping a new architecture of monetary regulation in the conditions of digital transformation are proposed.
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