ANALYSIS OF THE WAR'S IMPACT ON THE FINANCIAL CONDITION OF UKRAINIAN ENTERPRISES

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive study of the impact of the full-scale military invasion on the financial and economic performance of Ukrainian enterprises. The relevance of the topic is driven by unprecedented challenges: the blockade of ports, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of logistics chains, and significant labor migration. The aim of the work is to determine the scale of financial losses, assess the effectiveness of business adaptation, and identify the specifics of capital structure transformation under martial law. The research is based on the analysis of aggregate data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2015–2022 across five key sectors: agriculture, industry, construction, trade, and transport. The methodology involves two stages: an analysis of the dynamics of financial indicators and a comparative analysis of actual 2022 results against forecast figures calculated using the linear regression method. It was established that despite a nominal increase in the balance sheet total by 81.5% during 2015–2022, the real financial stability of businesses is at risk. A critical decline in the share of non-current assets and an increase in the share of current assets were identified, indicating a forced mobilization of capital. Particular attention is paid to the deterioration of the liability structure: reduced access to long-term financing and an increase in current liabilities, which heightens liquidity risks. The results of the comparative analysis for 2022 revealed a catastrophic deviation from forecast values. Instead of the expected profit, the corporate sector recorded a net loss of UAH 570.7 billion. Sales volumes decreased by UAH 2.6 trillion compared to forecasts. The return on assets (ROA) dropped to -0.022 against a forecast of +0.090. The sectoral heterogeneity of the war's impact was proven: agriculture demonstrated the highest resistance, maintaining positive profitability despite a significant slowdown in capital turnover, industry suffered the greatest losses due to the destruction of facilities, shifting to deep loss-making, construction and transport found themselves in a state of deep crisis with critically low financial independence and profitability indicators. The conclusions emphasize the need to implement state anti-crisis measures: insurance against military risks, writing off bad debts of strategic enterprises, and programs to return skilled personnel.