DIGITAL RESILIENCE VS ISOLATION STRATEGIES: NEW MODELS FOR MANAGING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

Abstract

The relevance of this study is driven by the fundamental shift in managing global value chains (GVCs) within a contemporary international business environment defined by heightened volatility and systemic shocks. Traditional models, which prioritized cost efficiency above all else, have proven critically vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, pandemic-related disruptions, and climate-induced logistics failures. The purpose of this article is to theoretically substantiate and empirically evaluate digital resilience as a superior alternative to isolationist strategies, such as reshoring and nationalization. The study utilizes a comprehensive methodology involving a systematic review of contemporary economic literature, comparative analysis of industrial models, and quantitative synthesis of the latest reports from the OECD and UNCTAD (2024–2025). The research results demonstrate that isolationist policies aiming at full relocalization of production are economically counterproductive and technologically regressive. Based on the 2025 OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review, it is established that aggressive reshoring could lead to an 18% decline in global trade and a 5% reduction in world GDP. Furthermore, in more than half of the simulated scenarios, isolation increased rather than decreased the volatility of national incomes. In contrast, the paper provides evidence that digital resilience, facilitated by the "technological triad" of Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, and Additive Manufacturing, offers the necessary agility to maintain supply continuity without sacrificing the gains of the international division of labor. AI-driven predictive analytics enable a 14.2% increase in total factor productivity for every 1% of technology penetration, while 3D printing can reduce logistics costs by 85%. The practical value of the article lies in the formulation of strategic recommendations for multinational enterprises (MNEs) and governmental bodies. For MNEs, the focus is placed on the transition to the Platform OLI (P-OLI) paradigm, where information and knowledge advantages derived from data monetization replace physical asset ownership. For governments, particularly in emerging economies like Ukraine, the study emphasizes the need for regulatory harmonization (GDPR, NIS2) and the development of "smart" industrial parks to integrate into resilient European value hubs. The study concludes that global competitiveness in the digital age depends on the ability to orchestrate flexible ecosystems that balance efficiency with predictive resilience.